et les analystes de GS qui répètent 1050 1050 1050 1050... ça fait réfléchir aussi
Kitco News Monday April 14, 2014 9:10 AM (Kitco News) -Goldman Sachs reiterated its call for gold to decline this year as U.S. economic growth picks up and Treasury yields rise, but the bank listed potential for supply disruptions in platinum, palladium and nickel. As they did on March 20, bank analysts listed a year-end gold forecast of $1,050 an ounce. Gold has a stronger tone so far this year, and a Sunday report from Goldman attributed this to “poor, but likely weather-driven” U.S. macroeconomic data so far this year as well as geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine. “As our economists are still confident in an acceleration in U.S. economic growth during the second half of this year, we continue to stand by our year-end gold price target of $1,050/toz,” Goldman said. “More broadly, we believe that with tapering of the Fed’s QE (quantitative easing), U.S. economic releases are back to being a key driving forcebehind gold prices. As a result, we expect that the decline in gold prices will likely be data dependent, in contrast to our 2013 bearish gold view which was driven by the disconnect between stretched long gold speculative positioning and stabilizing growth.
Please consider Gold Prices 2014: Do What Goldman Does, Not What It Says
Jeffrey Currie, the investment bank's head of commodities research, has repeated his $1,050 target several times since last October, when he declared gold a "slam-dunk sell" along with other precious metals.
But investors need to be very skeptical when looking at Goldman's forecasts for gold prices. Not only are they often wrong, but the bank frequently does the opposite of what it recommends.
Goldman and Gold Prices: A Shady History
Let's first look at some of Goldman's gold price forecasts over the past few years and how they panned out.
For example, back in 2007, Goldman was bearish on gold, telling its clients to sell. In fact, Goldman declared selling gold in 2008 one of its Top 10 tips of the year.
Of course, gold prices rose 12.2% in 2008 and another 23.4% in 2009.
By November 2011, Goldman was actually bullish on gold prices - it raised its target to $1,930 an ounce about one month after gold prices had peaked.
By May 2012, with gold prices below $1,600, Goldman adjusted its bullish target to $1,840 an ounce. Gold prices did rise slightly after that, but never made it to $1,800, and thereafter started a precipitous decline.
By December 2012 - when gold prices were trading in the neighborhood of $1,700, Goldman revised its forecast to $1,800. Six months later gold prices were slipping toward $1,200.
Goldman finally reversed course in February 2013, beginning its string of bearish forecasts that have continued to the present.
That's actually good news for gold prices, as Goldman always seems to be late figuring out where gold is headed.
Read more at
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... qG3Q60P.99