Quid des réactions du marché si la Cour Suprême invalide demain les taxes douanières de Monsieur Orange ?

Votre avis ?

sur les métaux ou les indices US ?

Les deux mon général.

Et sur les parités monétaires, dont les variations devraient normalement se ressentir sur les cours des métaux.

je te prépare mon avis ....perso

CME GROUP TO LAUNCH 100-OUNCE SILVER FUTURES TO MEET RECORD RETAIL DEMAND

le ratio spx gold est en train de lâcher

graph d hier mais l accélération arrive

https://x.com/intocryptoverse/status/20 ... 76/photo/1

Puisqu'on parle du CME, je ne sais plus où je parlais des marges qui allaient bientôt augmenter:

https://www.financemagnates.com/institu ... l-margins/



Je n'ai pas fait le calcul et j'ai lu en diagonale (suis en meet) mais un pourcentage fixe doit mécaniquement faire augmenter les marges en valeur absolue au fur et à mesure de l'augmentation des cours.

ca augmente aussi pour les vendeurs ....

Oeuf corse, mais il y a une différence de taille entre vendeurs et acheteurs: Les uns ont semble t'il la possibilité d'ouvrir des lignes de crédit auprès d'une banque centrale bien connue, pas les autres.

je lisais ça à midi on est plus du tout sur de la spécu papier comme avant et ils n y peuvent plus rien

https://x.com/Macrobysunil/status/2011029549694476343

Silver is not rising because of speculation.
It’s rising because the paper market is structurally short against real metal, and that’s why CME margin hikes work the opposite way most expect.

Here’s the mechanism, step by step

1) What margin hikes are designed to stop
CME margin increases are meant to slow leverage-driven rallies:

Too many paper longs
Too much borrowed money
Too little skin in the game

In that environment, higher margins force liquidation → price cools.
That logic only works when the rally is optional.

2) Silver’s problem is not leverage ,it’s obligation
In silver:
A large share of shorts are structural (bullion banks, producers, hedgers)
They are short because they’ve promised metal
Their risk is not mark-to-market, it’s delivery
This means:
Longs can leave
Shorts cannot

3) What a margin hike actually changes
A margin hike does not:
Reduce delivery commitments
Create new metal
Eliminate physical demand

It does:
Increase daily cash required per contract
Raise the cost of rolling shorts forward
Tighten internal risk and liquidity limits
This attacks time, not price.

4) Time compression on shorts (the core)
Before the hike:
Shorts can roll positions
Wait for longs to give up
Absorb manageable daily cash bleed

After the hike:
Cash drain accelerates
Rolling becomes punitive
Risk desks shorten tolerance windows
Credit lines come under stress

The same position that could survive weeks now survives days.
That’s time compression.

5) Why this accelerates the squeeze
As time shrinks:
Shorts stop optimizing price
They optimize survival
They buy back earlier
They accept worse prices

At the same time:
Speculative longs exiting reduces liquidity
Bullion banks step back from market-making
Paper supply thins
Physical premiums stay firm
Result: less selling, more urgency, higher bids.

6) Why producers matter most
Producers hedge by shorting futures against future output.
They don’t sit on trading liquidity, their cash is tied to operations.
When margins rise:
Variation margin spikes
Daily cash calls increase
Hedging becomes unsustainable
So they are forced to:
Reduce hedges
Buy back shorts
Or delay hedging entirely
That turns a natural seller into a forced buyer.

7) Futures and physical decouple
As stress builds:
Futures liquidity deteriorates
OTC and bilateral settlement grows
Physical premiums rise
Backwardation appears

Margins don’t stop the move, they push price discovery away from paper.

Final truth (the line most miss)
Margins kill leverage, not scarcity.
When silver rises due to a structural shortage, margin hikes don’t cap price, they expose the imbalance and accelerate resolution.

That’s why silver keeps moving through tighter margins, and why this is not a speculative rally.