Gold’s Rise To Continue Above $2,500/oz On Negative Real Interest Rates

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,689.50, EUR 1,349.23, and GBP 1,065.26 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,691.50, EUR 1,342.25 and GBP 1,067.44 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $32.18/oz, €25.73/oz and £20.32/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,563.50/oz, palladium at $636.50/oz and rhodium at $1,025/oz.


Cross Currency Table - (Bloomberg)

Gold edged up $3.50 or 0.21% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,695.30. Silver rose to $32.27 in Asia, slipped to $31.90 in London, and then hit a high of $32.40 in New York and finished with a gain of 1.84%.

Gold edged down overnight, but is not far from the 6 month high hit last session as weak economic data from the US bolstered hopes of further stimulus measures by central banks.

US manufacturing contracted at its fastest pace in more than three years in August and US construction spending dropped in July by the greatest amount in a year, the disappointing ISM index and construction spending data were released yesterday.

These reports ignite further hope for investors that Ben Bernanke will launch QE. Gold rose 4.5% in August and is now targeting the $1,700 price level again, the most since January, on speculation that the Federal Reserve will add to its $2.3 trillion bond-buying program.

Investors are awaiting the key US employment data due on Friday for further signals on the poor health of the US economy.

Bill Gross, the co-chief investment officer and founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, said in a Twitter post yesterday that signs that the European Central Bank will also increase steps to boost economic growth are “very reflationary” and mean that investors should “buy gold, TIPS and real assets.”

Peaks in gold prices since 1975 have usually been associated with rising real interest rates.

Times when real interest rates fell in tandem with gold prices include 1987-1990 and 1996-2001.

Even though real rates are have risen slightly, they remain below their historical average and levels below 2% have still been supportive of rising gold prices.

The 2% real interest rate threshold has served as an inflection point for gold prices.

Gold prices languished from 1980 to 2000, when real rates stayed higher than 2%. While real rates were volatile during this time, gold prices continued to decline even as real rates were relatively unchanged.

Gold prices languished from 1980 to 2000 and had declining correlations with debt levels because GDP growth was sufficient to mute fears about budget and deficit issues. The current economic recovery has been too weak to support a sustained rise in real rates above the 2% level that has acted an inflection point for gold prices.

With energy and food inflation deepening and soon to affect consumer price indices, interest rates may have to rise significantly in order to restore real interest rates above 2%.

This is with ex Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker did in the late 1970’s - when he increased interest rates to above 15% in order to protect the dollar and aggressively tackle inflation.

It is unlikely that similar ‘hawkish’ monetary policy would be implemented by the Bernanke Fed today. It is unlikely that they would and even doubtful if they could – given the appalling fiscal situation and levels of debt in the US and global economy.

A continuing succession of higher real gold prices above the inflation adjusted high, or real record high, of $2,500/oz is likely until we see interest return to more normal levels and zero percent interest policies are supplanted by positive real interest rates.

http://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=65392

il n'est pas évoqué le cas de l'or .... (comme par hasard)

http://www.24hgold.com/francais/contrib ... +Willie+CB.

sinon, chercher du côté : "repression financière"

Dans une situation de taux d’endettement excessif, des taux d’intérêt réels à long terme négatifs sont évidemment favorables en facilitant le désendettement. Ils s’observent aujourd’hui aux Etats-Unis, au Royaume-Uni, en Allemagne, aux Pays-Bas, en Finlande, presque en France.

Mais ils ne peuvent persister que s’ils ne découragent pas les investisseurs d’acheter des obligations. L’exemple du Japon n’est pas utilisable puisque si les taux d’intérêt nominaux sont très bas, l’inflation est devenue négative, d’où des taux d’intérêt réels qui restent acceptables pour les investisseurs.
Dans les pays où les taux d’intérêt réels à long terme sont aujourd’hui négatifs, on observe que les acheteurs privés d’obligations effectivement se découragent.


Mais la question qui se pose est celle des actifs substituables aux obligations. Si les investisseurs arrêtent d’acheter des obligations au Royaume-Uni, en Allemagne, aux Pays-Bas, en France, que vont-ils acheter ?
Le rendement des actions est incertain et peut être très négatif ; il en est de même du rendement de l’immobilier , ou de celui des actions des émergents
Les investisseurs seront peut-être contraints d’accepter les taux d’intérêt réels négatifs à long terme.

http://leblogalupus.com/2012/09/05/ledito-du-mercredi-5-septembre-2012-bernanke-draghi-deflation-inflation-hyperinflation-un-schema-par-bruno-bertez/

dommage pour les nouveaux venus que ce blog ne figure plus dans les liens en haut de page du forum, à part le style de lupus qui est un peu alambiqué,

ce n'est quand-même pas pour ça qu'il a été retiré ?

Je ne comprends rien. Ils expliquent que les taux sont bas, qu'habituellement en période de taux bas le prix de l'or est bas, qu'il est improbable que les taux remontent, et pourtant ils concluent que l'or va remonter ???