Je précise que c'est de l'allemand traduit en anglais gogol
IMF study urges rapid expropriation of savers in EuropeA new study by the IMF announces an unprecedented wave of forced measures against the savers in Europe. The debt crisis would be terminated by a mixture of "taxes on savings, loss of taxpayers through cuts debt, inflation, capital controls and other measures of financial repression." The European politicians are asked to give up their denial of reality and act.
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Themes: amnesia , unemployment , Carmen
For Angela Merkel and Sigmar Gabriel approaching the moment of truth: you will have to stand before the Germans and tell them that the debt crisis can be ended only with very hard cuts. The IMF recommends drastic measures for savers and recipients of transfer services. (Photo: Reuters)
For Angela Merkel and Sigmar Gabriel approaching the moment of truth: you will have to stand before the Germans and tell them that the debt crisis can be ended only with very hard cuts. The IMF recommends drastic measures for savers and recipients of transfer services. (Photo: Reuters)
The IMF has the renowned economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff instructed in a "Working Paper" show instructions for the solution to the European sovereign debt crisis.
The result is now available - and it exceeds previous fears about the scale and the solutions to the European debt crisis.
Recently, the IMF had proposed a ten percent tax on all debt net assets in Europe to push the debt to pre-crisis level of 2007 ( more on that here ).
The EU has taken appropriate measures to do this and some other demands enough ( more on that here ).
However, the analysis of Reinhart and Rogoff shows: All known measures are not sufficient to solve the debt crisis.
The IMF paper is entitled: "financial and sovereign debt crisis: lessons we have learned from the past - and those that we have forgotten."
The core message of the unsparing analysis: The solution to the European debt crisis will be done by brute measures. The idea that European countries could free yourself through a "austerity", "shift to the Future" and "growth" of the crisis is revealed by the authors as a simple illusion. Politics was in a state of "denial" of the reality and hope in all seriousness that the debt disaster could be ended with some well-regulated activities.
This is a fatal error.
Reinhart and Rogoff call the main flaw of European policy: This think really brutal financial repression was necessary and possible only in emerging countries, because these countries had to lose any reputation basically and the impact of massive coercive measures on the world financial system therefore limits would hold.
The IMF study notes, however, clear that the euro countries will experience the same shock as the countries of the Third World.
It will be really hard.
Because: "The size of the general debt problem can hardly be overstated. The current sovereign debt in developed economies are approaching a not seen before in 200 years record levels. "
In the paper, the economists analyze the crises of the last century and show that not only debt crisis could be ended without radical cuts.
The authors make it clear that politicians are indeed trying to use a form of forgetting "collective amnesia" that debt policy had always led to radical coercive measures. But it is clear that the policy today can only choose whether she chooses the terrible end sooner or later. The farther end of the Schuldenmacherei will be postponed, the loads will be greater, which will have to bear the citizens: "The policy of denial of the problem has led in some cases to the fact that the final cost of debt reduction will worsen."
The confidence of the IMF in resolving the debt crisis anyway does not seem to be too large: Just recently, the IMF had suggested to install a world government of technocrats to get the globally networked economy in the handle ( more on this plan - here ).
The paper calls on the governments in Europe to finally see reality in the face. Is mainly a technocratic politician like Angela Merkel - - With cosmetic measures is not to solve the problem. The longer the "mantra" of austerity, procrastination and growth vague hope is abandoned, the worse the crash will be at the end.
The story also applies to today - and teaches that even in highly developed countries at the end of each debt cycle a brutal Kassensturz must stand. Even for the rich, Europe is the "Standard toolbar" which the IMF used in the countries of the Third World.
This box contains basically only means by which cruelties must be committed "debt waiver by the creditor, higher inflation, capital controls and other forms of financial repression." The repression is given, the IMF authors, especially from a "hidden tax on savings (opaque tax on savers)".
Even the austerity measures must be maintained. However, budgetary consolidation ranges alone "because of the sheer size of the debt" by no means sufficient to solve the problem. This problem is aggravated that debt usually MUCH (written in capital letters in the original!) Are higher than those debts that are visible. For this, the authors are mainly those already set in motion "rescue measures" that have been used in Europe in billions of dollars for fire fighting. You have brought nothing, if the unemployment seen in Europe - however, the debt sized e driven in all euro countries dramatically in the air.
Reinhart and Rogoff come in the consideration of 26 examples of massive sovereign debt crises to the conclusion that this growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) have pressed an average of 1.2 percent down and lasted on average for 23 years.
In a way unknown until the IMF two authors can paint a very bleak scenario here. In general, the IMF claims that it is "purely theoretical" musings of the authors on such considerations as the IMF noted precaution also on the cover page of this study.
The IMF, however, has said in recent months in ever clearer terms what is to be done in order to escape from the vicious circle of debt crisis. The action proposals are in line with those about the Boston Consulting Group has designed already in their study "Back to Mesopotamia". The author of this study, Daniel Stelter has, "The trillion debt bomb" carried in his remarkable new book, that there is no escape: Social benefits are slashed, savings are shaved dramatically ( more on that in the interview - here ).
For Angela Merkel, who had been trying to keep maneuvering by the crisis in power - what is it indeed an outstanding success - means the layer, however, that it occurs sooner rather than later before the Germans and them, as King William some time ago ( here ) announced the bitter truth.
The IMF study recommends that the European governments, they like to deal with those hard cuts, "which were previously seen only in the context of emerging countries, but developed countries in the not too distant past even practiced".
The times of limitless prosperity are over.
The illusion is shattered.
There are tougher days.
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